Hit hard by Covid-19 pandemic, air travel is likely to pick up in 2022

Business travel is not expected to pick up until the final three months of the year or in early 2022, according to analysts at Raymond James. These lucrative travellers are key to the resurrection of major carriers like American, Delta Air Lines and United that rely more on corporate bookings than their budget peers like Allegiant Air and Spirit Airlines.

Trade group the International Air Transport Association (IATA) only forecasts a 2021 recovery in air travel to about half of 2019 levels. The organisation does not expect a full recovery until at least 2024 with the resumption of much international flying lagging domestic by at least a year.

"The expectation is that we will see a significant rise in travel next year, a 50 per cent rise," IATA chief economist Brian Pearce said in November. This forecast was based on the wide availability of vaccines in the second half of the year.

ICAO estimates that, by the end of 2020, the Covid-19 impact on scheduled international passenger traffic could reach reductions of up to 71 per cent of seat capacity and up to 1.5 billion passengers globally. Airlines and airports faced a loss of revenue of up to $314 billion and $100 billion, respectively, for 2020.

With help and guidance from the civil aviation stakeholder community, ICAO recommends a phased approach to enable the safe return to high-volume domestic and international air travel for passengers and cargo. The approach introduces a core set of measures to form a baseline aviation health safety protocol to protect air passengers and aviation workers from Covid-19. These measures will enable the growth of global aviation as it recovers from the current pandemic. It is, however, important to recognise that each stage of that recovery will need a recalibration of these measures in support of the common objectives, which are to safely enable air travel, incorporate new public health measures into the aviation system, as well as support economic recovery and growth. Our work must recognise the need to reduce public health risk while being sensitive to what is operationally feasible for airlines, airports and other aviation interests. This is essential to facilitate the recovery during each of the forthcoming stages.

These measures, applicable to States, airport operators, airlines and others in the air transport industry, are designed to enable a consistent and predictable travel experience. They will also contribute to the efficient, safe, secure and sustainable transport by air of an increasing number of passengers and cargo, and will minimise the risk of Covid-19 transmission between and among these groups and the general public. The implementation of these measures will facilitate and strengthen the global recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.