China's slowdown to benefit India
Dragon country may face clear headwinds: SBI Ecowrap
image for illustrative purpose
What's Bothering China
- Construction sector meltdown
- Retail and commercial realty now in deeper structural adjustment phase
- Home sales fell for 11 months in a row
- Infrastructure under pressure
- Population negative growth further affects housing sector
Mumbai: India seems to be enjoying the 'There Is No Alternative' (TINA) factor, as globally all countries are facing the churn and India seems to the best placed jurisdiction in terms of growth and inflation outlook in FY23, according to the SBI Ecowrap report.
This optimism is because China is also facing a bleak outlook on the back of a construction sector meltdown. In fact, report believes that the China story may now be facing clear headwinds and India is likely to benefit from such stark realities over the longer term.
The trends in prices of both retail and commercial real estate in China now show much deeper structural adjustment. The long-term trends in retail prices show that since 2016, prices have been steadily declining along the linear trend.
In 2022, even the nominal price index has witnessed degrowth which is a worrying sign. The real price index growth has been in negative growth since December 2021. Home sales in China have fallen for 11 months in a row, official data shows. That is the longest slump since China created a private property market in the late 1990s.
