$8-trn economy possible for India by 2034

What was achieved in the last 75 years, $4 trillion will be achieved in the next 10 years alone, and by 2034, we will be an $8-trn economy - Shaurya Doval, founder, India Foundation

Upward Trajectory

♦ Indian economy was $30 bn in 1947

♦ India was $1trn in 2007

♦ And reached $2-trn mark in 2014

♦ Now, it’s $4 trn plus

New Delhi: India is set to become a $8 trillion economy by 2034 and will pivot much of the world in terms of its economics and geopolitics, according to BJP leader and founder of think-tank India Foundation Shaurya Doval.

In an interaction with PTI editors at the agency’s headquarters here, he said the country is likely to face significant headwinds in the future as far as its ability to export is concerned. Doval said that “as we head into the next 25 years, we are going to see that India is going to pivot much of the world in terms of its economics and its geopolitics, and that’s great news for India and Indians”.

“This is primarily being driven by our economic rise, which is now reaching a point, which Einstein used to call as power of momentum,” he said.

“It took us 60 years, the British left us with an economy of $30 billion, in 2007, we became a trillion dollars...it took us like three generations. From 2007 to 2014, we went to 2 trillion dollars. Today, we are at 4 trillion (dollars) and this is despite Covid,” Doval said. What was achieved in the last 75 years, $4 trillion, will be achieved in the next 10 years alone, and “by 2034, we will be an $8 trillion economy”, he said.

The banker-turned-political thinker noted that more countries are focusing on building their own capacities, particularly after the Covid experience.

“Now, this for India is little bit of problem because we need goods and services in our trade to grow our economy. So, we are going to face significant headwinds as far as our ability to export is concerned,” Doval said.

Doval gave the example of China that used opportunities fully to reach where it is today in terms of economy. “Fortunately for us, we have got the advantage that we have a large market. And, certainly one of the initiatives the Modi government has taken particularly bringing these 500 million people into the formal economy is great for India’s economic growth because now we have our own primary market, which is growing, and therefore, has its own momentum of being able to offset some of the economic headwinds that will come from overseas,” he said.

“Our challenges here remain is our energy and our import. Because again, as you fuel this economic growth, if you are going to avoid getting insular, then they will also limit the export of energy. They would like to keep it confined,” Doval said.

He said to sustain 8-to-10 per cent growth rate, the dependence on energy imports that exists at present has to be reduced.

“The energy dependence is increasing, not decreasing. Even though we are doing so much, in the last 10 years, its gone up despite the fact that we have tried so much of import substitution by using solar, green whatever we could do,” he said.

“We can’t generate oil when there is no oil. But this is the biggest challenge as far as economic headwind is concerned,” he added. Talking about the geopolitical situation, Doval said that “we are on the right path but if the world gets sucked into some kind of conflict, which spreads from unintended consequences, and either reaches India shores or sucks India into it. That would really delay or maybe even offset our economic trajectory”.