Why pollution control policies failed to improve air quality in India?

In the past month, India witnessed three important climate-related happenings after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's panchamrit address at the Glasgow COP26 on November 1. One, unusual heavy rains lashed parts of south India. Two, ambient (particulate matter) PM2.5 and PM10 – hazardous air pollutants – registered alarming rise in the Delhi-NCR region. Three, the Supreme Court came down heavily on the Central and Delhi-NCR governments for their failure in taking effective measures to control the emission of pollutants that trigger air quality crisis in the Delhi-NCR region every winter.

How ironical is it? Modi had promised the world at the COP26 "an unprecedented contribution by India towards climate action" through the "gift of five elixirs" (panchamrit). But his government was unable to convince the Supreme Court of its sincerity in tackling the Delhi-NCR air quality crisis. Chief Justice NV Ramana, while upbraiding the Modi government and the Delhi-NCR governments, went to the extent of saying, "We feel that nothing is happening and the pollution keeps increasing... only time is being wasted." The Supreme Court softened its stand only when the Central and Delhi governments filed affidavits listing new measures, including formation of an enforcement task force and flying squads, to control air pollution.

Why the onus on the Supreme Court?

It was not the first time that the Supreme Court had to pull up the concerned governments for their failure in effectively tackling the recurring air quality crisis in Delhi-NCR. In fact, the World Bank has pointed out "a pattern of dependence on the courts for compliance" for cleaning Delhi's air. In its paper, 'Clearing the Air – A tale of three cities,' the World Bank states, "Time and time again, the government announced measures to reduce (Delhi's air) pollution but did not follow through on implementation. The Supreme Court then weighed in to force the government to implement the policy measures it had previously announced."

Another classic example where the Supreme Court stepped in because of the Modi government's lackadaisical approach in ensuring compliance with its own air pollution regulation concerns coal-fired power plants. These power plants spew hazardous air pollutants (mercury, nitrogen oxide and sulphur oxide), and five of them have been shut down to cope with the prevailing air quality crisis in Delhi-NCR.

To clean air in the vicinity of these power plants, the Union Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change issued a notification in 2015, specifying stringent emission norms which the power plants had to mandatorily comply by December 2017. However, the deadline elapsed without any initiatives by the power plants to upgrade their technology to meet the stringent emission norms. The matter reached the Supreme Court which granted a five-year extension (till December 2022) to the power plants to meet the emission norms notified in 2015, according to a note prepared by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE). That this matter lingered on in the Supreme Court for two years is a critical comment on the sorry state of affairs regarding taking concrete actions against air pollution.

After the Supreme Court ruling, only one-third of the power plants took concrete initiatives to meet the new emission norms. And, the Union Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, showing leniency towards the offending power plants, amended its 2015 notification on April 1, 2021 to extend the timelines for meeting the new emission norms by three to four years. The CSE expresses concern over the latest amendment because it is highly favourable to old inefficient polluting plants that are scheduled to retire. These plants have been given exemption from meeting the emission norms till 2025.They can continue to operate without meeting the norms by merely paying a penalty. The amendment is silent on shutting down these plants even after the 2025 deadline.

China faring better than India

Modi had tried to convince the COP26 audience with five promised elixirs and some favourable data about India's commitment to contribute to climate-change reversal. But how lenient his government has been in dealing with the offending power plants tells a story that is at odds with his panchamrit promise. Here it is apt to draw a comparison with China which had upgraded the technology of its coal-fired power plants to rid them of hazardous emissions in 2010, five years before India started taking baby steps in this direction.

According to reports, today 90 per cent of China's power plants are free from hazardous emissions. And, the air in China despite it being the largest carbon emitter in the world is cleaner than India's. Today, China's carbon emissions constitute about 30 per cent of the world carbon emissions. This figure is more than four times India's carbon emissions (7 per cent) and 10 per cent more than the combined carbon emissions of the European Union and the USA.

More India-China parallels with respect to air pollution could be drawn from the findings of IQAir, a Swiss air technology company which measures air quality across the globe in real time, based on PM2.5 concentrations. Though China is the largest carbon emitter, it was the 14th most polluted country in 2020 in contrast to India being the third most polluted country in the world, according to the World Air Quality Report 2020 of IQAir. Bangladesh was the top polluter followed by Pakistan at the second position. India's third ranking in 2020 was a degradation of its ranking as the fifth most polluted country in the previous World Air Quality Report 2019.

Another worrisome IQAir finding is that among 50 most polluted cities in the world, 35 are in India. Most Indian cities far exceed WHO-recommended safe limits of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations – PM2.5 concentration should not exceed 5 μg/m3 annual mean, or 15 μg/m3 24-hour mean; PM10 should not exceed 15 μg/m3 annual mean, or 45 μg/m3 24-hour mean. Excessive inhaling of PM2.5 beyond the WHO-recommended safe concentration for long periods can cause deadly diseases such as lung cancer, stroke, and heart disease.

At the time of writing this article on December 2, PM2.5 concentration in Delhi was 318 μg/m3, about 21 times more than the 24-hour safe mean, and PM10 concentration was 439 μg/m3, about 10 times more than the 24-hour safe mean.

In terms of average annual concentration of PM2.5 also, China's capital Beijing fared far better than Delhi in the Air Quality Report 2020. Delhi's average annual concentration of PM2.5 in 2020 was 84.1 per cubic metre of air – more than double the annual average of Beijing which stood at 37.5 per cubic metre of air.

Colossal economic loss and health hazard

The gravity of India's air pollution problem is underlined by the World Bank publication 'Catalyzing clean air in India' (August 2021) in these words, "The air pollution levels in India are among the highest in the world, posing a heavy threat to the country's health and economy. Almost all of India's 1.4 billion people are exposed to unhealthy levels of ambient PM 2.5 – the most harmful pollutant… ."

There are two studies which echo this assessment of the World Bank. One study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health in December 2020, attributed 1.7 million premature deaths in India to air pollution in 2019. The death figure was 18 per cent of all deaths. The economic loss due to premature deaths coupled with morbidity caused by air pollution was estimated at 1.4 per cent of India's GDP, equivalent to Rs 2,60,000 crore. The study was titled 'Health and economic impact of air pollution in the States of India: The global burden of disease study 2019'.

The study findings show that air pollution is no more no more restricted to the densely populated Indo-Gangetic. It has assumed pan-India proportions because states like Arunachal and Nagaland, which are ensconced in the lap of nature, have also been suffering economic loss due to air pollution.

Another study puts India's economic loss, because of air pollution, at Rs 7 lakh crore, more than twice the figure published in Lancet. This study was jointly released by UK-based non-profit Clean Air Fund, management firm Dalberg Advisors and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). The loss is equivalent to 3 per cent of India's GDP and twice the amount the country allocates for public health.

Is imitating western greenhouse gas emissions justified?

At the COP26, India was reportedly under western pressure to commit to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. However, Modi in his panchamrit address announced that India would achieve net-zero emissions by 2070. India's justification for delaying net-zero emissions is that greenhouse gas emissions are unavoidable since it wants to fast-track its development. Modi made it clear once again while blaming the western world for the current climate mess at a Constitution Day function on November 26. He said, "The colonial mindset hasn't gone. We are seeing from developed nations that the path (greenhouse gas emissions) that made them developed is being closed for developing nations... ."

In view of the economic and health loss being inflicted on India by air pollution, it is difficult to wholly justify India's greenhouse gases' emissions for the sake of development. The World Bank also does not subscribe to the view that development necessarily leads to excessive emission of air pollutants. The World Bank paper 'Clearing the Air – A tale of three cities' cites examples of countries where, unlike South Asian countries, economic growth did not lead to high pollution. The paper states, "Many low- and middle-income countries that have experienced rapid income growth have achieved a reduction in ambient PM2.5. Only six of the 42 low- and middle-income countries with average annual rates of GDP per capita growth higher than 3 per cent between 1990 and 2015 saw air quality deteriorate as much as it did in India. All the countries with GDP per capita growth rates higher than India saw smaller increases or decreases in ambient PM2.5. These trends suggest that policy decisions, investments, and technologies have a role to play in bending, flattening or shifting the Environmental Kuznets Curve – the notion that pollution first worsens and then improves at higher levels of income as a country develops."

The question is – Why India wants to tread the western development path of huge greenhouse gas emissions instead of following those countries which have registered impressive growth without subjecting themselves to dangerous levels of greenhouse gases' emissions? However, choosing the second option requires efficient state machinery for taking right policy decisions and implementing them sincerely. And, this is what has been missing so far in India's effort to meet the air pollution challenge.

(The author is a Delhi-based freelance journalist)