Mumbai: RBI has projected India’s inflation rate, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), at 4.5 per cent for 2024-25 in the backdrop of an above-average monsoon expected this year and easing of supply chain pressures.

“Headline inflation moderated by 1.3 percentage points on an annual average basis to 5.4 per cent in 2023-24. The easing of supply chain pressures, broad-based softening in core inflation and early indications of an above normal southwest monsoon augur well for the inflation outlook in 2024-25,” the RBI said in its annual report released on Thursday.

However, the increasing incidence of climate shocks imparts considerable uncertainty to the food inflation and overall inflation outlook. Low reservoir levels, especially in the southern states and the outlook of above-normal temperatures during the initial months of 2024-25 need close monitoring, according to the report.

“The volatility in international crude oil prices, the persisting geopolitical tensions and elevated global financial market volatility also pose upward risk.”