JAS-39 Gripen, Su-57, or Rafale: Which fighter jet could win India’s MRFA deal?

Swedish defense giant Saab recently showcased a Full-Scale Replica (FSR) of its Gripen E fighter in Bengaluru, India, as part of its aggressive push to secure a spot in India’s Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program. The mock-up was unveiled on December 9 during the Bangalore Security Dialogue, co-hosted by the Takshashila Institution and Dynamatic Technologies. It will also be displayed at the highly anticipated Aero India 2025 air show from February 10 to 14.

Kent Ake Molin, Head of Saab’s Gripen India Program, expressed confidence about the aircraft's prospects, saying, "We are excited to preview the Gripen E Full Scale Replica ahead of Aero India 2025 and look forward to meaningful discussions during the event."

Saab’s push for the Gripen E comes as India’s MRFA contest heats up. In 2018, the Indian Air Force (IAF) issued a Request for Information (RFI) for 114 fighter jets, with seven contenders entering the fray, including Boeing (F/A-18E/F Super Hornet & F-15EX), Lockheed Martin (F-21, a variant of the F-16), Dassault (Rafale), Eurofighter (Typhoon), Saab (Gripen E/F), and Russia (MiG-35 and Sukhoi Su-35). However, the program has faced delays, leaving the IAF with a pressing need to bolster its squadron strength and meet growing defense demands.

Saab’s Aggressive Push

Saab has long been vying for the MRFA contract and reiterated its commitment in August 2024, offering to deliver 114 Gripen E fighters to India. Saab promises quick delivery, stating that the first aircraft could be delivered within three years if awarded the contract. In addition, Saab has expressed its intention to localize production in India, adhering to the country's "Make in India" policy. The company is exploring collaborations with Indian private partners to facilitate technology transfer, helping India build a robust domestic defense industry.

The Gripen E, a cutting-edge 4+ generation fighter, boasts advanced technologies, including next-gen sensors, weapons, and silent networking for enhanced combat capabilities. Saab emphasizes the Gripen’s versatility in highly contested environments, ensuring air superiority. Despite its impressive features, the Gripen E’s 4+ generation status might be a concern, as India is increasingly looking toward fifth-generation fighters like the J-20 from China and Russia’s Su-57 to strengthen its air defense.

Does Gripen Have a Chance?

The security landscape has changed since the IAF first issued the RFI. China has already inducted over 200 J-20 stealth fighters, with plans to increase the fleet significantly, while Pakistan is expected to acquire the J-35A stealth aircraft from China. With these developments, the IAF faces a growing capability gap, particularly in terms of stealth technology.

When asked whether India should abandon plans to acquire a 4+ generation fighter in favor of a fifth-generation aircraft, Air Marshal Anil Khosla (retd) advised against it. He stressed the need to rapidly enhance India’s fighter strength through the MRFA deal, complementing ongoing efforts to accelerate the production of the Tejas Mk-1A and Mk-2, as well as the AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft) project.

The Rafale Option

Air Marshal Khosla also pointed out that the Rafale could be a strong contender, citing its proven performance and compatibility with India’s existing systems. He highlighted the importance of factors such as life cycle costs, technology transfer, and timely delivery in making a decision. "If the Gripen deal offers the best value for money, it could be a viable choice," he added.

Fifth-Generation Fighters: A Long Road Ahead

India’s acquisition of a fifth-generation fighter still seems far off. While China, the US, and Russia are the only countries currently operating fifth-gen stealth fighters, India faces significant hurdles. The US F-35 Lightning II is a tempting option, but geopolitical tensions, including India’s purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system, complicate matters. Moreover, if the US were to approve the sale, it would likely come with restrictions on technology transfer, making it less feasible for India.

Russia has pitched its Su-57 to India, promising improvements in stealth, avionics, and hypersonic weaponry, but the aircraft's lack of combat experience and potential delays in delivery, exacerbated by Russia's ongoing conflict with Ukraine, raise concerns. Furthermore, the risk of US sanctions over such a purchase remains a significant obstacle.

Ultimately, India’s decision on the MRFA deal will be shaped by a combination of strategic priorities, technological capabilities, and regional security concerns. With the country’s defense capabilities under increasing pressure from neighboring China and Pakistan, the MRFA deal could play a crucial role in shaping India’s future air power. While the Gripen E offers an attractive proposition, India’s defense strategy may prioritize more advanced fifth-generation capabilities in the years to come.