YS Jagan losing big in AP; YSRCP tally likely to be below 50

People expected a lot of development from YS Jagan, along with welfare schemes. However, the script has not gone on expected lines. Further, lack of jobs, price rise and poor infrastructure in rural areas seemed to have worked against the ruling party. The anti-incumbency against some MLAs also played spoilsport

The election to Andhra Pradesh Assembly was held on May 13 along with Lok Sabha polls. But the results will be declared on June 4. That’s a long wait. In the intervening period, there is much speculation in the State and elsewhere about the possible winner in the Assembly polls. Reports hint at large-scale betting either way.

Moreover, incumbent Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy spiced up the suspense by declaring that his YSR Congress Party would get more than the 151 seats that it won last time. He also said that party’s Lok Sabha tally would go up from the current 22. He made these predictions while speaking to the members of the Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC) immediately after the polling. This Kolkata-based political consultancy guided his party for 2019 and 2024 elections.

Jagan’s predictions came as a big surprise because the situation on the ground painted a starkly different picture, pointing towards a big loss for the ruling party.

According to the ground realities, YSRCP may get a meagre 45 seats from a possible 42 per cent vote share. To put the vote share in perspective, the Congress party came to power in Telangana with a lesser vote share in the recent Assembly polls. But Telangana had a three-cornered contest while AP’s battle has turned out to be a two-way contest thanks to the alliance TDP has with Janasena and BJP under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) umbrella.

The TDP-Janasena-BJP alliance is likely to get over 130 seats this time. Besides, there are some keen contests. Its tally will further increase if these keen contests turn into its favour. When it comes to vote share, the three-party alliance will get around 52 per cent votes. It is likely to make huge gains in East and West Godavari districts, which traditionally play a key role in the formation of the State government.

But how did these parties fare in 2019 when BJP and Janasena contested separately?

YSRCP enjoyed a vote share of 49.95 per cent, winning 151 seats out of 175. TDP’s vote share stood at 39.17 per cent with 23 seats, while BJP, with a measly 0.84 per cent, drew a blank. Janasena, which contested in 137 seats, garnered 5.53 per cent votes and one seat. This data indicates that the three alliance partners had a combined vote share of 45.54 per cent in 2019!

That means the vote share of the alliance partners is likely to go up by more than six percentage points to 52 per cent, while that of YSRCP is likely to come down by around eight per cent.

Many reasons can be attributed to the impending poor show of the ruling party. Firstly, there is a widespread anti-incumbency against Jagan Mohan Reddy and his party. A large section of people feel that Jagan has turned a progressive State like Andhra Pradesh into a regressive State. People expected a lot of development from him besides welfare schemes,as was done by his father Dr YS Rajasekhara Reddy.

Moreover, Jagan is young. However, the script has not gone on expected lines. Further, lack of jobs, price rise and poor infrastructure in rural areas seemed to have worked against the ruling party. The anti-incumbency against some MLAs also played spoilsport.

Another key issue is the capital city, which is an emotional issue for the people of the State. Capital city was the reason why Andhra was merged with Telangana in 1956 to form Andhra Pradesh with Hyderabad as the capital. The capital city was the main reason for the delay in the division of Andhra Pradesh when the separate Telangana movement erupted, all over again.

After the 2014 bifurcation, N Chandrababu Naidu, who came to power, planned for Amaravati Greenfield capital near Vijayawada. But Jagan, who unseated him in 2019, shelved the Naidu’s ambitious project and opted for three capitals with Visakhapatnam as the Executive Capital. But this proposal has not gone well with the people.

During my recent travels to Rayalaseema, several people found fault with such a proposal. “We don’t even have a single capital and our Chief Minister is talking about three capitals. Nothing could be more tragically ironic,” said an exasperated villager near Kurnool.

Intriguingly, Jagan went ahead with Visakhapatnam as the Executive Capital despite the fact that even people from this coastal city did not evince any interest in such a proposal. YSRCP is likely to lose big in Visakhapatnam as well.

Jagan’s obsession with the YSRCP manifesto released in 2019 also cost him dearly. It’s good that he implemented the manifesto, but that was not enough.

His sister YS Sharmila parted ways with him and joined the Congress, which made her the president of AP Congress Committee just before the 2024 General Elections. There were expectations in some quarters that her presence in AP might cause material damage to her brother. But that did not happen as Jagan’s fate was sealed even before she entered Andhra Pradesh politics. So, Sharmila’s impact is negligible in this election. She will be in the third place in Kadapa Lok Sabha seat. Of course, she has caused material damage to the YSR family’s image across both the Telugu States.

But Jagan should be happy with one aspect. A majority of people aged over 60 years and a significant number of beneficiaries of his schemes seemed to have voted for him. That’s the reason why he will get such a huge share of votes, though they are unlikely to save him the blushes.

Further, YSRCP could not make significant improvement during the campaign period despite ‘Siddhams’.

Anyway, if a ruling party loses an election, it is mainly because of self-goals and bad strategies. This applies to AP as well. While Naidu focused his entire energies on the capital city and other development aspects during his tenure from 2014 to 2019, Jagan Mohan Reddy remained obsessed with the welfare schemes after he came to power. None of the two adopted a balanced approach! Let’s see what is in store for Andhra Pradesh between now and 2029.