Time for Bharat to rethink covert operations amid regional volatility

The increasing volatility in South Asia, combined with internal and external threats, requires a bold and decisive shift in covert strategy. It is no longer sufficient for India to react to crises after they occur. A proactive, assertive approach in its covert strategy is essential to maintaining stability and safeguarding national interests. As the only stable power in a region beset by turmoil, New Delhi must act swiftly to secure its position and influence in South Asia

The overthrow of the democratically elected government of Bangladesh by radical Islamists backed by foreign forces has underscored the urgent need to reevaluate Bharat’s covert strategy.

Since 2014, Modi Sarkar has undertaken significant shifts in its diplomatic and military strategies. Initiatives like vaccine diplomacy during the Covid-19 crisis, championing the concerns of the Global South, and referring to island nations as “large ocean states” rather than “small island states” have all contributed to building Bharat’s global image. High-profile international engagements, such as the “Howdy Modi” event in Texas, have further bolstered this image.

On the diplomatic front, India has stood firmly with Russia in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, resisted diplomatic pressure from the EU and the US, and supported Israel in times of crisis.

Militarily, actions like the Balakot airstrikes, which challenged Islamabad’s nuclear blackmail, and the use of force in Galwan to create international embarrassment for Xi’s forces have marked a new era of assertiveness.

However, New Delhi has fallen short in its covert strategy, relying on conventional methods and tactics without adapting to the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Covert Great Game in South Asia

China has not shied away from openly threatening Bharat through its overtly covert operations, weakening India’s influence in the Maldives, gaining ground in Nepal, and encircling India via Sri Lanka. Since gaining independence in 1947, Pakistan has consistently sought to destabilize India, supporting terrorists financially and militarily to fuel terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir.

To protect its national interests, Pakistan’s establishment funded and trained Islamic terrorists to attack American troops deployed across Afghanistan while simultaneously being a partner of the US in the war on terror until it could outsmart America in overthrowing the democratically elected Afghan government and replace it with the Taliban leadership.

With Bangladesh now falling into the hands of radical Islamists, reportedly with support from the CIA and Pakistan’s ISI, it becomes evident that countries like the U.S., Pakistan, and China will, without hesitation, build divisive narratives, fund radical and terrorist organizations, support corrupt opposition parties and their leadership, and buy the loyalty of those who are supposed to uphold democracy, including the judiciary, police, and media.

These actions are all part of a broader strategy to overthrow elected governments that do not align with their agendas. These nations have acted overtly, without regard for global opinion or the international institutions and organizations established to uphold peace and democracy.

Unfortunately, Bharat, even under Modi Sarkar 3.0, continues to follow traditional, often outdated, methods—reminiscent of British-era covert operations—without sufficiently advancing its own overt and covert strategies to protect its national interests. It is time for New Delhi to go overt with its covert strategy!

Internal and External Threats to Bharat

Once again, Bangladesh’s violent regime change underscores the continued volatility of the subcontinent, which has grappled with dictatorship for decades. Additionally, Bharat faces significant internal challenges from Communist and Islamist groups, who are working to destabilize the nation with the backing of certain political parties. These internal threats are being made combustible by external forces, including China, Pakistan, and Western powers, who view a strategically weakened India as advantageous.

Going Overt !!!

Bharat's countermeasures should focus on three immediate actions: embroiling the Pakistani establishment in domestic turmoil, signalling China to keep its distance, and compelling the U.S. to reassess its stance on India's interests.

Do it or face a three-front war

The only way to prevent the Pakistani establishment from sowing unrest within and around India is to tie-it-down in its internal conflicts, spanning from Pak-Occupied Kashmir to Balochistan, by providing political and humanitarian support to marginalised and discriminated communities and their leaders. Given Rawalpindi's, the epicentre of global terrorism, involvement in the Bangladesh crisis, New Delhi must act decisively. The emerging situation is critical—India must take action now or risk preparing for a three-front war.

Leveraging Strategic Vassal Relationships: India’s Opportunity with the Taliban

In today’s geopolitical landscape, the role of vassal states is pivotal. Both the US and China have effectively utilized Pakistan and North Korea, respectively, as vassal States to advance their strategic agendas. Pakistan has been instrumental in furthering US interests in the region, while North Korea, under China’s influence, acts as a buffer State against Western powers. These States often undertake actions that align with their dominant partner’s goals, providing a strategic advantage and performing operations that the major powers themselves might find politically or diplomatically challenging.

New Delhi urgently needs to establish a similar strategic relationship with an influential ally. The Taliban administration in Afghanistan could fulfill this role for Bharat. Strengthening ties with the Taliban could offer India a strategic edge, enabling it to counteract both Pakistan and Beijing more effectively. Additionally, an understanding with the Taliban might provide opportunities for India to challenge human rights abuses and repression of Uighur Muslims in China. This tie-up could counterbalance in South Asia and beyond, leveraging diplomatic and strategic advantages to offset regional and global pressures.

Reviving a Modern Non-Aligned Movement

During the Cold War, Washington viewed the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) with suspicion and likely still resents the idea of nations not aligning with its global perspective. Reviving NAM could be crucial for international stability. Nations in the Middle East, Africa, South America, Southeast Asia, and various “large ocean states”—all weary of external interference in their domestic affairs—could unite to promote global peace and resist hegemonic powers.

A 21st-century version of NAM would be more assertive, reflecting a geopolitical landscape where nations are no longer aligned with just one or two major powers. China & Russia might support such a revival, as both stand to benefit from having countries move away from U.S. influence.

Conclusion: Bharat stands at a crossroads. The increasing volatility in South Asia, combined with internal and external threats, requires a bold and decisive shift in covert strategy. It is no longer sufficient for India to react to crises after they occur. A proactive, assertive approach in its covert strategy is essential to maintaining stability and safeguarding national interests. As the only stable power in a region beset by turmoil, New Delhi must act swiftly to secure its position and influence in South Asia.

(The author is Founder of My Startup TV)