Can Benjamin Netanyahu survive challenge to his rule?

Scheduled elections are at least two years away. Early elections could only be triggered if five members of the governing coalition join the opposition in a no-confidence vote, but this is unlikely because it would end their political careers. His chief rivals also lack a clear majority to bring down the government on their own. In the background, the ongoing trial against Netanyahu for alleged corruption, fraud and breach of trust still looms large

Israelis are once again venting their anger over the failure of the government to reach a deal to release the hostages still being held by Hamas in Gaza. Hundreds of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets across the country over the past couple days, with some gathering outside the homes of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the US embassy. The first nationwide strike since last October's Hamas attack also brought the country to a standstill. The spark for the protests was the discovery of the bodies of six hostages who had been executed by Hamas shortly before Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) located them. On Monday, Netanyahu issued a rare apology to the families. The demonstrations mark a new low in the relationship between large segments of the Israeli public and their elected government, which now seems beyond repair. So, how will Netanyahu respond?

Two years of mass demonstrations

Massive protests have been a regular feature in Israel since the most right-wing government in Israel's history was formed in January 2023. Throughout much of 2023, protesters marched in the streets in outrage over the government's proposals to reform the judicial system, which aimed to limit the power of Israel's Supreme Court. And following Hamas' October 7 terror attack on southern Israel, the families of the hostages have held regular rallies calling on the government to do everything possible, including making painful concessions to Hamas in ceasefire negotiations, to bring them home. Some 250 men, women and children were kidnapped on October 7. More than 100 were freed during a hostage-prisoner exchange with Hamas in November. Around 100 are believed to remain in captivity, including about 35 thought to be dead.

Between a rock and a hard place

Endless rounds of ceasefire negotiations since the start of the war – mediated by the United States, Egypt and Qatar – have yielded no concrete results. After months of wrangling, the US is planning to present both sides with what it calls a “take it or leave it” deal in the coming weeks. Hamas is insisting on a complete Israeli withdrawal from all of Gaza as part of the agreement, while Israel is demanding an ongoing IDF presence in two corridors in the enclave. While mediators had hoped a compromise was achievable, Netanyahu recently hardened his position. Last week, the security cabinet backed his position requiring the IDF remain deployed in the Philadelphi Corridor, a buffer zone between Egypt and Gaza, in any ceasefire deal. This comes after Netanyahu reportedly clashed with the country's top security chiefs, who had urged him to accept a deal. Politically, the prime minister is between a rock and a hard place. His coalition partners, far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, threaten to bring down the government if Netanyahu accepts what they call a ‘promiscuous’ deal with Hamas that doesn't guarantee a ‘complete victory’ in the war. Both are leading figures in a fringe settler group with grandiose visions of resettling Jews in the Gaza Strip. At the same time, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, a fierce Netanyahu rival, has blamed him for deliberately sabotaging any chance of a hostage deal to secure his own political survival. Gallant argues a ceasefire is the only way to release the hostages and end the Gaza war so the IDF can mobilise against the dramatic threat from the north — Hezbollah, the Iranian terrorist proxy positioned along the Lebanese border. Since October 7, about 60,000 Israelis living near the border have become refugees in their own country due to non-stop Hezbollah attacks. (Around 100,000 people have also been displaced in Lebanon.) The government's failure to prioritise the lives of hostages above all else has been compounded by insensitivity from top officials. Netanyahu was even quoted in July saying, “The hostages are suffering but not dying”.

‘Shake those who need to be shaken'

In recent weeks, it has become painfully clear that Netanyahu was wrong. The discovery of more and more bodies of hostages inside Gaza has shocked Israelis. The final straw came on August 31 when IDF soldiers uncovered the bodies of the six hostages slain by Hamas. The outrage grew even more when it was revealed some of the young men and women were reportedly scheduled to be released in the ceasefire proposal discussed weeks ago. The mass protests are evidence that many in Israel feel abandoned by their own government, which they believe has betrayed the Jewish moral imperative, “All of Israel is responsible for one another” (Kol Yisrael arevim zeh lazeh). The Histadrut, the umbrella organisation of Israeli labour unions, called a nationwide strike on Monday to “shake those who need to be shaken”. The government was granted an injunction to stop the strike, but not before many parts of the Israeli economy were shut down for a few hours, including the airport, schools and banks. Despite the outpouring of emotions on the street, Netanyahu is unlikely to change course. Backed by his base and encouraged by some conservative pollsters suggesting he is slowly regaining popularity among right-wing voters, he probably has more to lose from making concessions now to Hamas than from striking a deal.

Scheduled elections are at least two years away. Early elections could only be triggered if five members of the governing coalition join the opposition in a no-confidence vote, but this is unlikely because it would end their political careers. His chief rivals also lack a clear majority to bring down the government on their own. In the background, the ongoing trial against Netanyahu for alleged corruption, fraud and breach of trust still looms large. Regardless of all this, Netanyahu may well sincerely believe that his policies, though unpopular, will weaken Hamas and prevent another October 7 massacre. Meanwhile, hopes for the families of the hostages are fading quickly, amid nationwide anguish. Healing the deep wounds within Israeli society and the national psyche following October 7 cannot begin until this painful chapter is closed. Such a process is also a crucial precondition for any progress towards peace between the Jewish state and the Palestinians.

(The author is an Affiliate Researcher, The Australian Centre for Jewish Civilisation, Monash University.)