Modi sitting pretty despite anger over rising prices, lack of jobs

India can’t become a developed nation even in the next several decades if its rulers and leaders fail to take people of all castes and religions along. That’s an unquestionable reality. So, dividing people on religious lines is not good for the country at large and its future

The 2024 General Elections is in its final stages. On Saturday, the sixth phase poll covered 58 Lok Sabha seats across six States and two union territories. With this, elections have been completed for 486 of the 543 seats that are up for grabs. That means that voters in 90 per cent of seats have made their choice. The remaining 10 per cent will do that on June 1.

So, the answer to the key question of who will rule the country for the next five years is already sealed in the electronic voting machines (EVMs). Though India is a multi-party democracy, only two alliances are fighting for power at the Centre- the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDI alliance). Of course, there are some States like West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana where there is a three-cornered contest, thanks to the presence of regional parties. However, the role of the regional parties, which are not part of the two alliances, will be miniscule unless there is a hung Lok Sabha, which is unlikely this time.

Frankly speaking, despite the presence of the two alliances, it is the performances of the BJP and Congress, which is a part of the INDI alliance that will decide the eventual outcome on June 4. To further simplify it, the 2024 General Elections are all about re-electing Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the BJP for a third consecutive term or not. And it will obviously be a verdict on his performance in the last 10 years. So, the moot question in everyone’s mind is whether Modi will become the PM again or not.

My recent travels across Uttar Pradesh and parts of Delhi have revealed that there is disappointment among people against Modi and the ruling BJP due to lack of jobs and the ever rising prices of essential commodities. This seems to be the case across many States. But has this disappointment reached a level where it can lead to the defeat of Modi on its own? No, it’s not.

Further, the opposition led by Congress has not done much groundwork to corner Modi and his government on these critical issues. Modi would have been on the back foot had they done that.

However, this is not only the area where Congress has fallen short.

When the election season began, Modi surprised everyone by setting a target of 370 seats, a two-third majority, for BJP and 400 seats for NDA. BJP won good mandates in 2014 and 2019. So, there will be a fatigue factor among the BJP cadre. Apparently, in order to galvanise the cadre, Modi has set these higher targets. But the opposition, including Congress, fell into the trap, saying that BJP would not get 370 seats. Actually, the saffron party doesn’t need that many seats to form the government at the Centre. It needs to win just 272 seats, the halfway mark. Opposition’s narrative on 370 seats has sent out a strong signal that BJP will get a majority, but will not reach 370 mark.

However, Telangana Chief Minister Anumula Revanth Reddy of Congress tried to turn Modi’s 400 target into an advantage for Congress by talking about the danger of BJP scrapping existing reservations and changing the fundamental contours of the Indian Constitution in the event of the NDA achieving the milestone. This narrative has even rattled BJP’s top leadership. That way, Revanth Reddy handed a good political weapon to Congress in this election. But the grand old party failed to capitalise on this issue at the national level, especially in the Hindi heartland. This shows how weak the Congress machinery is.

Arvind Kejriwal, Delhi Chief Minister and the founder of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), has also done his bit to showcase to the Indian electorate that the INDI alliance is too weak to take on Modi. He spoke of Modi’s retirement the moment he was out on interim bail in the Delhi liquor policy case. Obviously, Kejriwal raised an interesting question. Many BJP leaders aged over 75 years went into oblivion after Modi became the PM. Now, Modi will turn 75 next year. So, by that norm, he will not be prime ministerial candidate for five years. Kejriwal asked as to who would be the prime ministerial candidate after Modi's retirement. But the fact of matter is that it is the BJP and its leaders who should talk about Modi's retirement and not the opposition.

All these strategic blunders made even ardent Congress supporters believe that BJP would win again. During my recent tour of UP, I was talking to an ardent supporter of Congress. He said that the Modi government was a complete disaster and blamed it for unemployment and other ills. But when I asked him who would win the election, he said Modi would become the Prime Minister, all over again. That tells the whole story.

Even ardent supporters of Congress are not confident that their party will challenge Modi’s dominance in this election.

Though the Modi factor is the most dominant force in these polls, the Prime Minister has his share of blunders. Many expected that he would focus on his performance, development and Viksit Bharat by 2047 during the campaign. But he suddenly started talking about mangalsutras, Muslims and minority appeasement by Congress. He made it clear in one of his media interviews that he did that to expose Congress.

But such statements should not have come from a person of Modi’s stature, a sitting Prime Minister with 10 years standing Moreover, this has not gone well with his neutral, young supporters. BJP may lose some seats because of such comments. But despite all this, the bottom line is that BJP is likely to secure seats required for majority on its own in this election as the opposition is weak and anti-incumbency against Modi is not that strong.

Nevertheless, India can’t become a developed nation even in the next several decades if its rulers and leaders fail to take people of all castes and religions along. That’s unquestionable reality. So, dividing people on religious lines is not good for the country and its future. Hopefully, Modi behaves like a statesman in the coming years.