Stock-specific trading may continue

To continue the positive bias, the index must sustain above 24168. In any case, if Nifty moves above 24401, it can test 25056. The budget can be another trigger point for which the market is waiting. If the index declines below 24168, it can test 20DMA of 23776

Negative Market Breadth :

• 1,611 declines
• 1,116 advances
• India VIX is up by 7.13%
• 142 stocks in upper circuit
• 250 stocks hit a new 52-wk high 

The benchmark indices consolidated further as the earnings season to begin soon. NSE Nifty closed flat, just 3.30 points negative at 24,320.55 points. FMCG was the top gainer, with 1.63 per cent, followed by PSE and CPSE, with 1.63 per cent and 1.12 per cent, respectively. The Oil and Gas index is up by 0.88 per cent. The PSU Bank index is the top loser with 1.60 per cent, followed by the Consumer Durable index with 1.28 per cent. The Pharm and Auto indices are down by 0.63 per cent and 0.54 per cent, respectively.

The India VIX is up by 7.13 per cent, indicating volatile moves ahead. The Market breadth is negative as 1,611 declines and 1,116 advances. About 250 stocks hit a new 52-week high and 142 stocks traded in the upper circuit. RVNL, IRFC, HDFC Bank, and Cochin Shipyard were the top trading counters in terms of value.

It failed to move above the prior day’s high. The last four days of price action show the topping formation. The market is nervous as the earnings season has begun. The IT majors will start declaring their earnings in the next two days. Before earnings, the index is in the mood for consolidation. It is waiting for the trigger points to continue the rally or to reverse to form an intermediate top. To continue the positive bias, the index must sustain above 24,168 points. The 8EMA support is also at a similar level of 24,163 points.

In any case, if Nifty moves above 24,401 points, it can test 25,056 points, as we forecast earlier. The budget can be another trigger point for which the market is waiting. If the index declines below 24,168 points, it can test 20DMA of 23,776 points. As the bears fail to drag the index below the supports, we can’t forecast more than this at current levels. The stock-specific activity will continue, and stay cautious on extended stocks.

(The author is Chief Mentor, Indus School of Technical Analysis, Financial Journalist, Technical Analyst, Trainer and Family Fund Manager)