Impact of Potential Donald Trump Victory on India: Nomura Holdings
The report highlights several key areas where Trump's policies could influence the global economy
As the 2024 US Presidential election approaches, Nomura Holdings has analysed the potential economic impacts of a Donald Trump victory.
Their report highlights several key areas where Trump's policies could influence the global economy and specifically affect India.
Impact of a Potential Donald Trump Victory on India:
Higher US Inflation: A 0.75 percentage point increase by 2025.
Larger Fiscal Deficit: Increased US fiscal deficit.
Fewer Fed Rate Cuts: Limited Federal Reserve rate reductions.
Weaker Growth: Slightly weaker US economic growth.
Implications for India:
Economic Resilience: India's domestic demand-driven economy will limit the impact of slower US growth. Lower commodity prices and reduced oil prices could benefit India.
Trade Friction: Potential trade disputes over India's trade surplus and currency policies may arise but are expected to be outweighed by gains from supply chain shifts away from China.
Immigration Policies: Tighter immigration policies under Trump could affect Indian IT workers and students.
Foreign Policy: Strong US-India ties are likely to continue, with potential benefits from eased US-Russia tensions.
Overall, Nomura believes that India could benefit from a Trump presidency, especially in terms of foreign policy and economic positioning.